Tuesday, 29 March 2011

Fish-ed Off


Another terrible start to the day and another one that could and should have been avoided. I was so sure that Del Potro would win today that I took up too early a position on the Argentine against Mardy Fish, who was anything but Pish today. I cut the trade short, unlike the Peng game yesterday and saved myself a chunk. I was doing this sort of thing a lot during my really poor stage of a couple of weeks ago and I must cut it out sharpish. My best skills are in reading games in-play and to do that, I need to sit back and remain patient. That was very difficult today because it was intensely frustrating. Due to rain delays, re-scheduled matches and pure unlucky timing, there were a lot of matches on at the same times, so I was unable to follow many of the games that I wanted to.

I ended up getting stuck in the Petkovic v Jankovic game for about 3 hours and came away from it with nothing. It was a draining experience, especially as the game so fraught with errors by the players. After that finished, there was nothing suitable left to play, as Nadal and Djokovic stream-trained to 1.01, apart from Tipsarevic v Simon, which miraculously presented me with a (relatively) huge win and pushed my winning streak to 5 days by £2! It certainly put some shine into an otherwise dour day.


I thought I'd take time today to write a bit about my strategy. I know it is something I've kept largely under-wraps but I've come to the assumption that actually, it won't make any difference who knows about it. Firstly, it is not proving to be consistently successful! Secondly, there is nothing new or ground-breaking about it. And Thirdly, it's not something that anyone can just copy anyway.

Basically, I follow games in-play and place trades based on what I see. I prefer to do this rather than do anything pre-match because there is less guess-work involved. If you are playing what you see, you are less likely to start the match in a tricky position that you have to work your way out of. And with tennis, you just never know what is going to happen. Take the Peng game yesterday or Del Potro today. Not many would have picked them to lose their matches and I don't think anyone would dare to after-time and say they thought they would lose in STRAIGHT sets! Of course, most traders will have a contingency plan to work their way out of red situations when things don't start as they had planned but I prefer not to put myself in that situation from the off. My strength lies in reading a game and seeing what is likely to happen, either in the short or the long term. When I have a clear picture, I use one of several strategies to get involved, which include scalping, swing-trading, backing on serve, laying at low odds or laying the server. The key thing with all of these though, is the entry points. They are based on probabilities and playing percentages, I don't just come in on any point. So that's really all as clear as mud!

Basically, I don't use any one system and I don't repeat any one strategy over and over, regardless of who is playing. All my trades are based on my knowledge of the players and reading of the game in-play. I nearly always aim to get at least one break of serve and once I have it, I very rarely stay in the game for more profit. I do have different entry and exit points for the men and women but you might be surprised at how similar the overall strategy is for both. I know many traders just stick to one or the other. I used to be useless at ATP but I now do just as well with that as I do with WTA, though I still prefer the women. The men can pull back break points much easier than the women and you tend to get more streaks and momentum swings with WTA and this is what I look for when I'm trading.

Anyway, another day ends and whilst I'm a bit fish-ed off, I'm sure the rest of Miami will produce enough for me to get my teeth into.

1 comment:

  1. Hi mate,

    I've posted a link on my blog to yours. Any chance you could do the same?

    No need to post the comment, just the link would be great!

    BetfairGuru Trading

    http://betfair-guru-trading.blogspot.com/

    ReplyDelete

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