Wednesday, 30 March 2011
In the Groove
Quiet day yesterday, just played 2 games and the first produced my largest win since I re-started with lower stakes and proper bank management. Almost a full week with profit every day now and I'm starting to feel back in the groove I had at the start of the year.
Thought I would try an interesting experiment today. I want to see how my pre-match views fare against my in-play reading. Today's games:
Nadal v Berdych
Nadal is far too low to back but I do expect him to win. No prizes for that insight! The question is, would I lay him pre-match? There's some value in my opinion. Rafa hasn't been at his brilliant best all year. Worth a shot against a big server.
Simon v Federer
The Frenchman has come from a set down in his last 2 games and was 2 sets down the last time he played Federer and pushed him all the way at the Aussie Open. I know one thing for certain - I wouldn't back Federer at under 1.2. Simon does start slowly whilst Fed tends to start quickly, so it is difficult to lay from the off. Anything could happen here!
Sharapova v Petkovic
Sharapova has struggled against Peng, Wozniacki and Dulgheru lately and that's because they are top defenders. Petkovic always prefers to attack and you can't outhit Sharapova on current form. I know she beat her in Australia this year but Maria has upped her game since then. Jankovic should have beaten Andrea yesterday but the UEs from her were very uncharacteristic, she missed a load of sitters. Petkovic looked jaded and I don't think that marathon match will have helped. There are concerns over Maria's ankle apparently - even more reason not to get involved pre-match! But for this experiment only, I'm saying Sharapova should win this, I think it's a game too far for the German. I'd back her, she's a great price but there should be a few breaks in this, as her serve remains dodgy as hell. Won't be an easy ride.
Zvonareva v Azarenka
Vera seems to have a first-class tournament mentality these days. It seems as though she saves her best for the latter stages. She hasn't blown anyone away in Miami and has looked subdued but she always does enough and plays the big points superbly. I think she'll up her game today - she'll have to. Azarenka was brilliant last night, thoroughly demolished Clijsters. She had an answer for everything Kim threw at her and I was very surprised as she had been very erratic on serve all week. Can she produce that again today? I doubt it. Vera is a different match up anyway and will be much more consistent than Clijsters, especially on serve. I would take Vera pre-match.