Wednesday, 16 March 2011

Strategy Overhaul

I know that it's going to seem strange to some of you that I'm changing strategy after one year. Let's look at the reasons why. My original strategy was based on Tradeshark Tennis Strategies. I followed these religiously for the first 3 months. I then started tweaking them as I felt there were one of two things that I was uncomfortable with. After about 6 months, I was doing almost entirely WTA and very little ATP. I then tweaked the WTA strategies further, as I felt I could get more profit. This worked for a while and I was really confident that this was the way forward. But I was still in 'boom and bust' mode. The strategy was great for a while but then I'd lose discipline.

After 9 months, I realised that the issues weren't with the strategies so much but with ME. I didn't have the correct mindset and so set about changing it and the way I approached trading. After 10 months, I had changed a lot and also had started back on ATP aswel, with a much better strategy. However, I underestimated how much my mindset needed to change and so nothing really developed. The wins kept coming, even more than ever before but one slip and I ended up back in a negative cycle. After 12 months, my bank was decimated and I was too anxious to follow the strategy properly. It requires immense patience, discipline and confidence and you have to be alert at ALL times. The way I was feeling emotionally, with all my financial worries, I just couldn't keep it up. I have also found it very exhausting. It has basically, stopped being a fun challenge and is now an anxious chore.

I still believe the strategy will produce success but only in the right hands. I've mentioned many a time that away from trading, I lack patience in anything. I find it hard to stick to things long term and am always looking for new stimulus and new challenges. I don't like sitting in one place for hours and waiting for something to happen. But the biggest issue for me with this strategy, has been the fact that I have often ended up losing money, when my own intuition and reading of the game actually ended up to be correct. That is incredibly galling. The problem is that the strategy imposes strict get-out points, which you have to use no matter what, otherwise you can face enormous losses. But those get-out points have too often led to me going all-red, when if I'd just gone with my intuition, I would have profited.

What I need is a system that allows me more freedom to use my own intuition, with less strict rules and boundaries. In life, I don't like following rules. I have a creative mind that needs room to breathe and make my own judgement calls. I like to be able to think things through and mull ideas over, rather than being boxed in and told 'you must do this here, right now, for this amount of time'. My strongest attribute within tennis trading, is that I can read games very well. I have a knack of predicting shifts in play and foreseeing what will happen from set-to-set. I'm not suggesting I can predict who is going to win every time but I have a good understanding of what is LIKELY to happen WITHIN a game, given a set of circumstances. But because of the constraints of my strategy, I am not often able to go with this intuition. I have paper-traded my own game-reading for weeks now and I don't often get it wrong. This does not constitute a trading strategy though, it's just gambling. There still needs to be some rules and bank and risk management etc. But I think I've now figured out a way to forge my strength into something that will produce consistent trades.

My old strategy was very intense, requiring me to closely follow games at all times, waiting patiently for exact points to enter. When i did enter, the intensity would grow to fever-pitch as I had to be bang-on it for a minute or two, before attempting to get out. If that moment didn't work out, I could be sitting on a huge loss, larger than my pre-defined acceptable loss. That will never happen with my new strategy. My loss will always remain the same from start to finish, it is the profit that needs to be decided upon. This should lift much of the weight of worry off my shoulders and enable me to function without fear. The intensity will be less, as it won't be concentrated down to a minute or two. I'll have more time for analysis and will be able to read the game and use my strongest skills to greater advantage. Rules will be a little more open-ended but that's OK because my stakes will be smaller and if something unaccountable does go wrong (scoreboard failure, retirement, injury etc) it won't put me in a difficult position. Overall, I will get to relax and actually enjoy the tennis a bit more.

I only wish I'd made the switch sooner. 3 days have produced 20 winners and 5 (very small) losses, which would have brought profit of approx. £550. My biggest fear is that I have not done enough paper-trading. 3 days is obviously nowhere near enough! But I have also been noting down my ideas for a couple of months now and very rarely have I been wrong. The Gambler's Law dictates that I will now have a few losses to start off with but I'm prepared for that. My bank management should be better with this new strategy and I can survive a few hits. I just hope that the 4 to 1 win ratio can remain consistent.

I've decided not to post here for a while during the start of this new strategy. I just feel as though I need a bit of a break and to put all my focus on getting it right. Hopefully I'll be back in a few days with some nice profit to tell you about!

2 comments:

  1. hope it all works for you , good luck , look forward to seeing your blog in a few days with lots of green profit
    roger

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  2. Hi. Good luck with the new strategy. If it would help to bounce ideas off someone else I'd be interested to hear about the strat.

    Paul

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