Friday, 1 April 2011

Oil Change Required

My best day since I introduced bank management and low stakes, 7th consecutive day of profit and no losses at all - things are finally looking consistent. Let's see how my pre-match reading in yesterday's post, compares to what I actually did in-play:

Simon v Federer

As I expected, Federer started like a train and went 3-0 up before Simon retired.

Sharapova v Petkovic

Got this one spot-on - several breaks, close match with Maria coming out on top. This game shows perfectly exactly why I don't do anything pre-match. Would have got into a lot of trouble backing Sharapova from the start. Instead, I just waited for Maria to bring her best to the table and jumped on for the ride!

Nadal v Berdych

I was right again with this one, as a pre-match lay would have seen you gain 20-30 ticks as Berdych took the 2nd set. Nadal went as high as 1.8 in set 3, though you'd have to be brave to hang on for that! However, I did just as well by waiting in-play and taking Nadal in the final set. There was market over-reaction to a shoulder / neck massage he was given, which pushed up the price in set 2. Once he'd saved 3 break points from 0-40 in the first game of the set, I was on Nadal like a flash at what I considered generous odds, considering his record against the Czech.

Azarenka v Zvonareva

Well, I got this one badly wrong! Vika continued as she left off against Clijsters, barely making an error in a straight set demolition. But the beauty of waiting till in-play meant that instead of having to manage a red position on Vera, I was able to ride the Azarenka wave for another win. I didn't bother with set 2 and ended the day in high spirits.

So there you have it, plenty of good justification for not taking pre-match positions. Of course, it's only 4 matches but you get the general idea as to why I only work in-play. I have to say, it's great to actually be able to write about tennis and trading as opposed to analysis of what is going on inside my often macabre mind! I only hope this stays this way. If I'm 100% honest, I have not traded at my best all week, so to have 7 days of consistency is very satisfying. I've not been as focused or been concentrating as well as I usually do. I think it's because the omega 3 fish oil that I take each day, ran out about 2 weeks ago and I keep forgetting to order more! It really is a fantastic, life-changing supplement for me personally, and I would not be able to trade for long periods without it. I have that feeling that a huge mistake is not too far away because I keep catching my mind wandering at inopportune moments. Off to order another bottle now, will see you tomorrow after the men's semi finals - Nadal v Federer, can't wait!


  1. Hi The Sultan,

    Taken from your post about Sharapovas match:

    "This game shows perfectly exactly why I don't do anything pre-match. "

    Agree 100% ! I don't see any reasons for me to get involved in pre-match betting.

    Keep it green !
    cheers ;)

  2. Congrats to your continues success. Nice to see you improving. Keep up the good work.

  3. Cheers Rockaren. By the way, nice April Fool's joke, you well and truly made me look foolish with that one! :)

    Thanks Daniel, I'm looking forward to the clay season. 4 tournaments next week, so will be a real test of my consistency.


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