Friday, 1 April 2011

Oil Change Required



My best day since I introduced bank management and low stakes, 7th consecutive day of profit and no losses at all - things are finally looking consistent. Let's see how my pre-match reading in yesterday's post, compares to what I actually did in-play:


Simon v Federer

As I expected, Federer started like a train and went 3-0 up before Simon retired.


Sharapova v Petkovic

Got this one spot-on - several breaks, close match with Maria coming out on top. This game shows perfectly exactly why I don't do anything pre-match. Would have got into a lot of trouble backing Sharapova from the start. Instead, I just waited for Maria to bring her best to the table and jumped on for the ride!


Nadal v Berdych

I was right again with this one, as a pre-match lay would have seen you gain 20-30 ticks as Berdych took the 2nd set. Nadal went as high as 1.8 in set 3, though you'd have to be brave to hang on for that! However, I did just as well by waiting in-play and taking Nadal in the final set. There was market over-reaction to a shoulder / neck massage he was given, which pushed up the price in set 2. Once he'd saved 3 break points from 0-40 in the first game of the set, I was on Nadal like a flash at what I considered generous odds, considering his record against the Czech.


Azarenka v Zvonareva

Well, I got this one badly wrong! Vika continued as she left off against Clijsters, barely making an error in a straight set demolition. But the beauty of waiting till in-play meant that instead of having to manage a red position on Vera, I was able to ride the Azarenka wave for another win. I didn't bother with set 2 and ended the day in high spirits.

So there you have it, plenty of good justification for not taking pre-match positions. Of course, it's only 4 matches but you get the general idea as to why I only work in-play. I have to say, it's great to actually be able to write about tennis and trading as opposed to analysis of what is going on inside my often macabre mind! I only hope this stays this way. If I'm 100% honest, I have not traded at my best all week, so to have 7 days of consistency is very satisfying. I've not been as focused or been concentrating as well as I usually do. I think it's because the omega 3 fish oil that I take each day, ran out about 2 weeks ago and I keep forgetting to order more! It really is a fantastic, life-changing supplement for me personally, and I would not be able to trade for long periods without it. I have that feeling that a huge mistake is not too far away because I keep catching my mind wandering at inopportune moments. Off to order another bottle now, will see you tomorrow after the men's semi finals - Nadal v Federer, can't wait!

3 comments:

  1. Hi The Sultan,

    Taken from your post about Sharapovas match:

    "This game shows perfectly exactly why I don't do anything pre-match. "

    Agree 100% ! I don't see any reasons for me to get involved in pre-match betting.

    Keep it green !
    cheers ;)

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  2. Congrats to your continues success. Nice to see you improving. Keep up the good work.

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  3. Cheers Rockaren. By the way, nice April Fool's joke, you well and truly made me look foolish with that one! :)

    Thanks Daniel, I'm looking forward to the clay season. 4 tournaments next week, so will be a real test of my consistency.

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