Monday, 27 June 2011
Great Gambling, Terrible Trading
Serena OUT. Venus OUT. Wozniacki OUT. Lisicki, Paszek, Sharapova and Bartoli ALL through to the quarter finals. Every major prediction I made for the women's draw has come true. And what have I got to show for it? NOTHING!! It is times like these when I wish I was a gambler again. These predictions generally mean squat when you are a trader. But when you are going through a rough patch, these things become magnified and can cause you to start straying from your strategy. There's nothing more annoying than having an all-red screen from a game where you correctly predicted the winner. Even more so when you correctly predicted the winner over a week earlier, in writing and on your own blog!
The day off on Sunday had really done me a lot of good. I was refreshed and re-focused and ready to re-start my Wimbledon in the right frame of mind. And I was definitely fully focused as I began. But things just did not go for me. Tamira Paszek, my best tip of the tournament and probably any other tournament, failed to win the points I crucially needed her too. So despite winning the match as I'd expected and continuing her fantastic run, she let me down when I most needed her and I ended up losing money. That's just the way it goes and is something you have to take on the chin as a trader, where the short term is everything, but I let it affect me and ended up making that red twice as bad as it should have been and almost a whole lot worse. The exact same thing happened with Sabine Lisicki in her win over Cetkovska. The frustration prompted me to chase on the Tomic game and basically throw money down the toilet. I then failed to get matched by a split-second in the Sharapova game, which would have won me back my Paszek loss, as Maria went on to win. Once more, I could not profit from my early predictions.
In anger, I then threw my money onto Marion Bartoli, who I tipped (along with Sharapova) to win Wimbledon. I hinted on this very blog that she would beat Serena Williams, who I said would be out by this round at the latest. Frankly, I could not believe she was 2nd fave to win Wimbledon, the daftest price I've seen all year and was sorely tempted to actually place a bet in the outright winners market, laying the crap out of her. I would seriously have lost the plot if Bartoli had knocked out Williams and I'd not made any money. Fortunately, I did and it enabled me to calm down and sort my head out. I was unlucky with the Nadal loss as I was caught the wrong side of a large price shift following Nadal's injury. Typical of my Wimbledon.
I've decided that I will never write down any predictions for any match or tournament ever again! It was supposed to be a bit of fun but when your trading isn't going well, it suddenly becomes anything but that. Again, the fragile psychological equilibrium of the trader can be so easily disturbed. I would now quite like someone I didn't tip to win Wimbledon, though that doesn't leave much option! Of course, none of this matters if I trade properly and for much of today, I've been dodgier than a Venus Williams outfit. I predicted she would be out well before the final too, though I would never have gone for Pironkova to do the job. This girl only seems to bother playing at Wimbledon, the other 50 weeks of the year she can't string 2 wins together! I only hope the opposite is true of me.......