Friday, 16 September 2011

Intuition

Some people think that intuition and gut-instinct are just unreliable judgements based on nothing more than emotion. On the contrary, intuition is based on knowledge and experience and is completely rational - it's just that it occurs quickly and without going through the methodical, slow, thought processes. Emotional trading and intuitive trading are not the same thing. Trading on pure emotion is never usually a good thing. A mistake new traders often make is confusing the two. They think they are trading based on gut-feeling but don't have the relevant experience of the markets or the sport to make correct intuitive moves in the heat of the moment. They are usually just guessing or trading based on pure emotion - fear, hope, etc.

What I've been doing this past couple of days is trusting my intuition, which is based on a year and a half of hard work, watching matches and markets every day. So instead of looking at prices and thinking 'That's a bit low, that price will probably shoot out again' or 'That's not the right price' but ignoring it due to fear, I'm getting stuck right in. Instead of thinking 'She's probably going to fight back even though she's just lost serve' or 'Knowing her, she will probably hold serve now' and not doing anything because my rigid system won't allow it, I'm going with my gut, regardless. My decisions have been quick and decisive. On the whole, I've barely needed to hypothesize, I've just 'known' what felt right and been ready to enter the market well before the entry point arose. That's intuition.

Generally, I've been taking more risks by going against the market. This is turning me from someone who used to try and catch momentum whilst it was rolling, into someone who is now predicting and speculating when the next momentum shift will start. As such, I'm finding it easier to get matched because I'm entering more on the lay side rather than backing, and gaining more ticks for my wins. 10-20% greens that were typical before, are now more likely to be 20-100%. And those greens are coming thick and fast! My wins have ranged from a 1.17 pre-match lay to a 1.7 in-play lay. That may not mean much to you but I wasn't doing either of those sort of plays previously. I now have a much wider range of winning opportunities available to me and I'm not afraid to take them. Since Wednesday (when I started reading 'Trading From Your Gut') I've had 13 wins, 3 scratch trades and ZERO losses, my best run for at least 4 months! Coincidence? Only time will tell. All I know for sure right now is that I am buzzing with enthusiasm for trading again.

2 comments:

  1. Keep it up, don't sink back, watch Cassini and Mark Iversons online NFL trading this weekend. Log in, even if you have no interest in NFL. It's very important to see how the successful guys think while trading and can be applied to tennis.

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  2. Thanks, I may well do that, although to be honest, I've known for a while how the top guys think. I just haven't had the guts to change my style and be more aggressive. That has most definitely changed now. NFL could be an extra string to the bow through the quiet tennis month of December though.

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