Thursday, 15 September 2011

Unshackled

The book 'Trading From Your Gut' has really got me thinking more about my strategy. The strict guidelines I had, I feel were preventing me from using my knowledge and experience to the fullest and more importantly, were not allowing me to gain as much profit as I should have been. Whilst they undoubtedly stood me in good stead as I was learning the ropes, giving me some discipline and a framework to set up from, I don't feel as though I need those rules anymore. Especially with the changes in the tennis markets in recent weeks, a cautious method is going to be even harder to make profitable.

So I've been looking to be more proactive, more aggressive, more instinctive and more flexible with my trading. I've tried to enter each match with almost none of the strategic constraints that I had previously in place. Instead of adhering to a strict set of entry and exit points, I have decided to experiment by ditching almost the lot of them and purely trading based on my gut-feeling and reading of the market in-play. I have to say, it feels as though I've been unshackled! I'm so much more excited about trading again and that's because I now have the freedom to do almost whatever I want within reason.

An example of the changes I've made include scrapping the rule 'never back a woman on serve'. I started to think 'Why not?'. It's almost a fallacy that the women always struggle on serve, a huge joke on gambling forums. But the fact is, they still hold serve more often than they get broken. I'm not suggesting it's a great tactic and there's no way I would recommend using it very often but if you know the players and you know the market and you can read the play, why not back on serve every now and then? I have actually done it a few times this week, each time following my gut instinct and I was right almost every time.

Another change I've made is to allow myself to enter the market at almost any point in the game. Previously, I would, for example, rarely enter at 0-0 and would try to stay away from the final set. These restrictions are now open, albeit with a certain amount of caution. Without meaning to sound big-headed, I know the tennis markets like the increasingly hairy back of my hand and I know the players (certainly all the ones in the top 150) as if they were family! So why restrict myself to specific moments in specific matches? Why not step outside of the box every now and then, when I see an unusual opportunity? I have nothing to fear about the market anymore because I will rarely be surprised by anything that happens. So why not take a few more risks? The way I look at it, every game is different and anything can happen. Why not just go with the flow and react to whatever happens, when it happens?

So far, so good. My passion for trading is higher than it has been since January. I am looking forward to every game now and my focus is razor sharp. After a few teething problems on Monday and Tuesday, Wednesday turned into the sort of day that has been sadly lacking from my trading for a while now. I was completely uninhibited and almost everything I did came off. I'm feeling more confident about what I'm doing, partly down to my discovery of 'Trading From Your Gut'. I've commented in the past on other tennis trading blogs, that I'd had the exact same opinions as those bloggers but whereas they'd been aggressive and made lots of money, I'd ignored my gut and got nothing. Hopefully, this is about to change.

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