Sunday, 11 September 2011

US Open Week 2

It's been a massively frustrating week. Very few matches, huge rain delays, 2 days with no play at all and another day where I didn't have an opportunity to place a trade. My trading was ok, no major issues but at the same time, nothing to shout about. I ended the week in profit but I have only really had 3 full days, so there wasn't much I could deduce from my results. My paper-trading, in typical fashion, produced great results for the second week running. So as you can imagine, I've been thinking about introducing the techniques straight into real-money situations. I know it's too soon in reality but my head is spinning right now.

There are so many questions I have about where I'm going with my trading. Is my strategy REALLY good enough? Should I be looking to be more aggressive / speculative? Are the markets changing and taking away any edge I had? Am I just going through a rough patch which will eventually get back to normal? Should I be trusting my own judgement a bit more, rather than playing it as safe as possible? Can I make larger greens by switching strategy? Is the focus and patience required in my strategy too difficult to maintain on a full-time basis?

I'm really torn between a switch to a more aggressive style of trading, which will allow me to place more trades, requires less patience and will gain me larger greens potentially. But that would mean probably taking more reds, ditching a safer strategy that I've worked so hard on for so long and at a time when I feel I've finally got to grips with the mindset required to make it successful. But those greens have definitely dried up lately and I've started to lose confidence in the long-term validity of the current strategy.

What riles me most is that time and time again, my reading of the play is superb but time and time again, I come away with a losing position or less green than I could have. Taking a few more chances would rectify this but after such a long time trying to perfect my cautious, patient approach, it is going to be tough to shift my mindset. I'm trying to find a way of incorporating facets of both strategies together but that may take time - and that's one thing I don't have anymore. I need to be making this work by the end of the season, or I will have to give this up. I hate being in this state of limbo and it's a worrying time for me. Hopefully, a full week of trading will enlighten things a bit more.

4 comments:

  1. Hi Sultan

    Whatever your trading performance, your blogging performance is spot on. Your writing really connects and shows the feelings that we all go through.

    One observation I would like to make is regarding the following that you wrote:

    “What riles me most is that time and time again, my reading of the play is superb but time and time again, I come away with a losing position or less green than I could have. Taking a few more chances would rectify this....”

    Surely by letting your winning trades run you would be taking LESS risk! I know that it is easier said than done but if you are “taking less green than you could have”, you should just let your winning traders run for longer.

    I know I am being over simplistic but sometimes the obvious is staring us in the face.

    Anyway I hope you don’t mind the observation and please keep up the good work.

    Regards
    Mark

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi Mark, thanks for your kind words. When I say coming away with 'less green than I could have', I don't mean that I don't let winning trades run long enough. It refers to me entering trades earlier, using slightly riskier positions but for potentialy greater profit.

    I seem to often correctly read what will happen in the game but the entry points I use seem to be a little too safe for me to extract the most profit that I could.

    For example, I will predict correctly what is going to happen (say, a break of serve) but by the time I've entered the market, most of the movement I need for a large win has finished. I'm then left fighting for the last remaining scraps at poor prices, which are either too low to get any value or too late to get matched. So even though there was indeed a break, I only gain 0-10%, when I could have had 20-30%.

    That 20% green then allows me to continue safely into the next game, letting the trade run with no risk, maybe taking 30-50% altogether. But because I only have 10%, I am unable to take much risk next game and have to exit quickly, often ending up red.

    'Taking a few more chances' would entail using riskier, earlier entry points, which would enable me to let trades run longer - as long as my game reading is correct! This is what I'm working on now but it's very hard changing from a system I've used for a whole year.

    ReplyDelete
  3. hi,

    Just started my own blog and I wondered if you want to swap links?

    I have already put you on mine as your blog is great. hopefully mine will be as good very soon.

    My link is:
    http://fulltimefootballtrading.blogspot.com/

    ReplyDelete

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