Well I've had a very satisfying weekend! First of all, very pleased to see the reaction to my interview with Scott Ferguson. I wasn't quite expecting the interest it seems to have drummed up, with threads on the Betfair forum (worth reading because there are some excellent comments, which you don't often find on there these days) and a hit rate on Centre Court Trading which has gone through the roof! I have more interviews in the pipeline, so if you are a new reader, stick around cos there should be a lot more interesting stuff to come.
The best thing that happened to me this weekend though, was girl-group Little Mix winning the final of The X-Factor. I mentioned a few weeks ago that I fancied them to win (they were trading at over 3.0 at the time and were not the faves), although I should have taken them higher as had a feeling about them for a couple of weeks before that. Many were saying that a group had never won and girl groups traditionally do very badly and so Little Mix wouldn't win. But with the boy bands exiting early, my theory was that this was the exact reason why they would win. There was a feeling to me, that people wanted a girl group to do well this year and 'end the curse'.
Little Mix were 1.4 going into Saturday's final but I was more than happy to let the trade run. Marcus Collins had been the favourite on the exchanges up until the penultimate week but I knew from spending time on fan forums and watching the (admittedly rubbish but excellent information source) spin-off aftermath show 'The Xtra Factor', that it was clearly Little Mix that were getting the attention.
Stars such as David Walliams were coming out in their droves on the ITV 2 show to champion the 4 young girls many weeks before they became faves on the exchanges, whilst host Dermot O'Leary appeared and said it was Little Mix who people stopped to talk to him about most, in the street. Also, the 'Who is your current fave?' poll on the Digital Spy forum, showed Little Mix as forum faves right from the early weeks and had double the amount of votes to Marcus Collins going into the final weekend. Looking at the X-Factor voting percentages for 2011 though, they only came top in 3 of the 9 public voting weeks, so they were clearly under the radar with the actual regular voters but had a strong surge of support in the last 4 weeks.
The win was my second biggest of the year, with just one tennis trade being larger - maybe I'm concentrating on the wrong market?! It has given me a much healthier looking bank to start 2012 with and certainly means I can relax for 2-3 weeks and not bother getting involved with the football (heaven forbid!) in a desperate attempt to alleviate my itchy trading fingers. But trading TV shows is the same as trading any sport; the more time and effort you put into your research, the greater chance you have of knowing more than the rest of the market. Never forget, you are competing against other people.
Here's world number 48, China's Zheng Zie: