Long time readers will know that I am not much of a statistics guru. I'd go as far as to say I have very little interest in them. However, I do keep detailed notes on all my trades; what I did, the prices I took and the errors I made. These help me to work out what I could/should have won or lost and to see what is working and what isn't. I usually calculate a few basic stats every so often. As I write this, I have traded 101 games this season. Of those 101, I have made errors in 40. So almost half of all games traded could have been traded better. That is a lot of mistakes but miraculously, I'm still turning a good profit, which just goes to show how I'm not letting those errors affect me. It gives me great hope for the future too because if I can cut out most of those mistakes, my profit will boom.
The majority of those mistakes were made because I jumped into the market too soon. There were 27 matches where, if I'd waited longer for a better value price, I would have made a profit / increased profit, over what I actually got. I also counted 15 matches where I didn't exit early enough from an all-red position and another 15 matches that I got involved in when I should have just stayed away. So that's almost a third of all matches that have cost me more money than they should have. But the most staggering statistic of all is the following; if I'd let my initial entry bet run on for longer (either right to the end of the match or greening up closer to the end of the match) I would have increased my current profit by more than TEN TIMES! I worked it out as a monumental 1200% difference!
It's been tough to adapt to my new approach, particularly with the fact that I now have to accept far more losses. It's a challenge to maintain discipline when I frequently get a run of small reds but one I'm dealing with really well. My old approach was based on gaining lots of little to medium sized wins and hoping to keep my reds (which were medium to large to super-size) to a minimum. Now, I'm looking to maximize my wins by being more aggressive and letting my green positions run as long as possible. This is only just starting to become more natural for me and I am getting better and better at choosing the best moments to green up. However, these stats show that I could still be even more aggressive and let those green positions ride even further. There is a danger that it could just be a short-term anomaly and that the stats will even out in the long term but this isn't the first time that my analysis has shown that letting my greens run for longer would produce greater profit. It's just never quite been on this scale!
Redding-up is now less of an issue as it was last year. I've only had two losses which were over £50 and just one of those was a three figure sum (a blip from week 1 on a market I don't normally and haven't since gotten involved in), so I'm in control of things much more these days.
The overview of those first 101 matches though, is very simple; I'm STILL not being patient enough. Nothing new there then! My new mantra which I appear to have subconsciously picked up from another blog I think, is 'Keep your powder dry'. I keep re-iterating this every day but now these stats show that by doing this, I could be exactly where I want to be with my trading after all these years.
By the way, does anyone remember 'Statto' from Fantasy Football League back in the 90s? Brilliantly witty programme hosted by David Baddiel and Frank Skinner (comedy genius). Think Statto's real name is Angus Loughran (?) and is known to be a sports trader these days. Maybe someone can fill me in on that.
OFF-COURT BEAUTY: World number 46, Iveta Benesova of the Czech Republic: