Monday, 11 June 2012

Damn You, Nadal!

So Novak Djokovic didn't quite manage to make a complete mockery of the 1.33 Rafa Nadal started the French Open final at but he did enough to show that it was a very poor price. I layed SP and as I said in my previous post, if Nadal broke first, he would be low enough (1.12) to lay again and I duly did so early in set 1. Just 5 games later, Novak pulled it back to 3-3 and I could've greened up for a small amount. I was never going to exit that early though, as I still fancied Djokovic to win. I have to admit, at 2 sets down I had given up and switched over to the football! But the Serb pulled off 8 games in a row to pull back the 3rd set and go a break up in the 4th. Because of the second lay, I was now able to green up for 75% of my liability. However, Djokovic was so on top, I decided to wait and go for more - then play was suspended. Under the damp conditions, Nadal was losing the plot and who knows what would have happened if the rain had let up. But I had a nasty feeling Nadal would benefit most from the break in play and exited the market for 50% - not a bad day's work. I decided to keep my 'outright winner' bet running, as it was just a small stake but as I expected, Nadal had regained his focus the next day and thoroughly deserved the win.

Djokovic was simply outplayed for most of this match, which to be honest, I didn't expect. But it was never going to be a straight sets win (as many were predicting) so I just 'knew' the price was going to at the very least, shift enough to allow me to scratch my initial trade. However, the second lay allowed me the chance to make some good profit with very little extra risk. To get the same amount of green by backing Nadal at 1.33 to the end of the match, I would've needed more than DOUBLE the liability and would've been sweating a lot in set 4, maybe even having to scratch or red up as the price went out 30 ticks from SP - not a situation where many traders can afford to sit and do nothing.

So what have I learnt from the European clay swing? I've learnt (finally!) how to properly trade a Grand Slam event, patiently. I've learnt that I'm not quite ready to start trading outright winner markets seriously and to be honest, I really don't need to start diversifying just yet. I've learnt that clay court tennis suits my strategy better than any other surface and this is where I need to focus most each year.

Anyway, that's it for the clay court season and it's now onto the grass for the next month, culminating with Wimbledon. I've mentioned before that I don't want to change anything until this grass swing is over because I want to be certain my strategy will hold up well on this surface. I'm confident it will but there's no harm in waiting a few more weeks for peace of mind. After that, it's time to look at upping those stakes, which will be the first time I've done that in 2 years! I've only been reducing stake sizes over the last 2 years, so it's gonna be rather strange!

Ana Ivanovic:

1 comment:

  1. I was afraid that you post naked Nadal today, Ivanovic is much more better...:)


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