Monday, 12 November 2012

2012 Trading Season Review

So the tennis season comes to a close, with just the Davis Cup Final remaining. It's been an incredible season for me. January was my only losing month. I have averaged approximately 50% of my bank each month. I've achieved my biggest ever monthly profit from tennis trading. But perhaps most importantly, I have a strategy that is 100% set in stone; no nagging question marks, no underlying worries and no problems executing it.

At the start of the year, I was 4 or 5 months into fine-tuning a whole new strategy and a trading ethos which was the complete opposite of what I'd been doing for years. I was finding it hard to adapt and to trust the new ideas. I was still ill-disciplined, impatient and uncertain about many things but the one thing I was sure of, was that I was on the right path finally and it was just a matter of time before it all clicked. That moment came in February, where I made my first 4 figure profit. From then onwards, I was no longer the boom and bust trader of a year earlier and I was no longer frustratingly breaking-even as I had been over the previous 6 months. It was just a few small tweaks to the strategy, plus this excellent book, that made the difference and enabled me to become consistently profitable.

But that's not to say I haven't had my share of frustrations. The main one being that I have been unable to compound my profits or grow my bank. When I think about where I could be if I'd been able to do that, it makes me a little sick. Hopefully, things will change in 2013. My new set of goals for my 4th season of tennis trading, will mostly be aimed at growing the bank. The scope for scaling up to bigger stakes is still huge - I'm still just a tiny minnow in the ocean when it comes to liabilities. So I think that my overall goal for 2013 will be to grow the bank up to a 5 figure sum. Once I've achieved that, I can seriously start to think about trading professionally again, only this time, I'll actually know what I'm doing!

As for my trading itself, there will of course, always be things that I aim to improve. The key one still remains, even after all these years, my terrible impatience. The second one is keeping any over-confidence in check. And the third key issue I'll be working on, is my focus, which I can see becoming a bigger problem in 2013 because my trading is pretty repetitious now. I'm not trying to figure things out or test areas of strategy or work on my mindset, so there is less variety in what I do. Trading has become easier but with it, a tad monotonous. So keeping focus is going to be a real challenge. I'm hoping that an increase in stakes will bring with it a new set of challenges and perhaps new trading ideas, which will keep me interested. There is also still room for me to develop a more aggressive approach and I may look to do this. I've been playing it relatively safe and have not gone for the really big greens. If I hit a few of them, it will take my trading onto a whole other level.

I was going to trade some football over the next few weeks but to be honest, the win I got from Reading v Arsenal (have I mentioned I layed 1.03 at 4-0 yet?!), is as much as I could have hoped for in the whole off-season. As football managers like to say "I would've taken that before the start". Besides, my fall out of love with football continues. I'm sick to death of all the stuff that goes on around football - the racism, the pathetic behaviour of some fans, the vile chants, the farcical governing bodies, the diving, cheating and gamesmanship, the moaning, whinging, biased-beyond-all-reason supporters, the primadonna players and the endless debates over the same, nonsensical issues such as goal-line technology. When I trade a sport, I need to be enjoying it and I actually find myself getting angry with a lot of what I see and read. That's no way to prepare for a session on the ladders. I won't be back as a regular viewer or trader until some serious changes are made - ones I don't expect to see any time soon.

So it'll be quiet on the posting front from me. I've added a couple of new sections to the side-bars of the blog; a list of my most popular posts (automatically chosen by Blogger based on no. of hits) and 10 of my favourite other posts. Might be something of interest to tide you by till I return. I'm not even going to think about trading at all until the New Year, so that's it for 2012..............happy Christmas, traders!

Ana Ivanovic:




12 comments:

  1. Congrats on an excellent year (very impressive!) and may it continue next you jammy git! :)

    I'm still not watching footy for all the reason you pointed out, and I've loving the extra time it's freed up to enjoy other stuff.

    Do you think that book you mentioned will still be helpful to tennis traders those doesn't have a interest in poker and doesn't know how to play?

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    1. Cheers Jack! Some poker knowledge would help with some of the stories and jargon but it's not essential, as the mental side to poker is identical to trading. Just buy it!

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  2. Well done on your good year, Sultan. Not knowing (or wanting to know!) how much you need to make to trade professionally, do you really thing you need a 10k plus bank to do it? What's behind that question is an assumption that you generally trade one tennis match at a time so I'm wondering what proportion of that 10k you'd be using / risking at a time?

    That's a very jaundiced view of modern football! Unfortunately you can't wind the clock back to pre Sky / pre - Prem pre - big money times. Would that you could!

    The popularity of football with bettors, I'm sure, has enabled the gambling industry to expand its horizons in-play. The hordes of 'biased-beyond-all-reason supporters' betting on here must be good for liquidity in other markets as they explore other sports, such as tennis. I for one am glad they visit regularly - if they weren't 'biased-beyond-all-reason' I probably wouldn't be able to lay Liverpool at odds on most weeks!

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  3. Hi Gun, thanks for the kind words. I don't need a 10K bank to trade professionally but I would prefer to get it up to around that level before I went down that route. It's not about the proportion of the bank I'd use at any one time, it's about the number of consecutive losses / bad runs I can sustain. You always have to prepare for the worst in this game because anything can happen. One month where you start badly or personal issues affect you and that bank can be eroded pretty quickly. I could probably still do this professionally with a 5k bank but the way I look at it, if I'm going to put everything on the line, I want to be making a substantially larger wage than the UK average, so I can save for the future and have a safety net.

    It's a jaundiced view but it doesn't make it any less true! I don't want to go back to pre-SKY times, I just want a few things eradicating which I know could easily be eradicated but probably never will be due to the awful governing of the sport e.g. technology for key incidents, harsh retrospective bans for cheats and points deductions / bans for clubs whose fans repeatedly chant offensive things. The money isn't even the issue for me.

    My 'biased' comment refers more to fans who are so blinkered that they would, for example, still stick up for someone like Suarez or Terry. Basically, all sense goes out the window even when facts are there for all to see. Nothing to do with betting, as far as I'm concerned, I'm with you on that!

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  4. Congrats man, you deserve it after your hard work, and thank you very much for sharing it all through this blog.

    Cheers!

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  5. Congrats on a good year Sultan. Have very much enjoyed reading your blog along the way and look forward to your return.

    Bet19

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  6. Cheers mate, I enjoy reading yours too, keep up the good work.

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  7. Excellent stuff m8, all the best for the new year...

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    1. Cheers Sledge, hope all is well with you, all the best.

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  8. Hi Sultan, been interesting reading your blog (I need to go through all of it actually, but I've read about half of this year's posts)!

    Would be inclined if you would take a look at my blog and add it to your list if you find it worthwhile reading, I've been trading for about 18 months now, and mostly only Tennis :)

    All the best for 2013

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    1. Thanks Kojn, no problem, will need the link though!

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