Sunday, 6 January 2013

Happy New Fecking Year

2013 has been a total disaster. Since the tennis season started, I have only recorded TWO wins. I daren't even look at all the reds but it's easily my longest draw-down EVER. I didn't suffer anything like this in the whole of 2012. So what has been the reason for it? Well, aside from 1 particularly bad trade, I haven't really done much wrong. It really has just been a case of extreme bad variance. In fact, the worst loss (which totals just under 50% of my entire losses) was in the very first game of the season! I completely messed up in the opening Andy Murray match (where he was dumped out of the Mubadala Exhibition) because I didn't follow my strategy which has been so successful for 12 months. It was pure rustiness on my behalf. I wasn't reading the market well and simply wasn't in tune with the ladders after a 6 week break. The Abu Dhabi Exhibition was supposed to be a gentle sway back into trading, to lift off the cobwebs but I stupidly went in full steam ahead without allowing for the loss of that natural feel for the processes.

To be fair to myself though, I reacted well to this. I haven't panicked and haven't done anything massively stupid or reckless since. My other losses have all been standard size reds and although there are one or two regrettable trades where I lost patience, not one of them cost me much. But they do pile up and it is now going to take a pretty fantastic Australia Open  to make January a decent month.

There is some good news though. I have barely traded any of my bread and butter WTA, as it's mostly been on in the small hours. That will change as of today, as I work the graveyard shift for Oz time - midnight to morning. So that should improve matters. Plus, I know what the potential is for a nasty draw-down with my strategy. It's good to know this because with my success last year, I wasn't quite sure just how bad it could get and what I needed to prepare for. Now I know! It's painful but it's bearable. And if the tennis has been a disaster, the football has at least cheered me up. I predicted that QPR would get a draw against Chelsea (in the comments section of my previous post) but even I was shocked to see a 0-1 away win for the bottom placed Premier League side against the form side in English football.

I just had a gut feeling this would be an upset; London derby, midweek following the congested festive period, at night under the lights - it just had that feel about it. They were so dire against Liverpool 1st half, I just couldn't see them performing that badly for the next game and they matched them in the 2nd half. Plus, I never go against a team that I know will just get everyone behind the ball and defend for 90 mins. Can just as easily end 0-0 as it would 6-0. The win puts QPR back on the coat-tails of Wigan, Southampton and Villa and I still believe they will stay up, so my lay of them in the relegation market remains in place - for now.

NB: Just one important piece of info I feel I need to correct. Gundulf over on 'A Football Trader's Path' has labelled me as a QPR fan. This heinous piece of blasphemy has to be corrected! I have never been nor will ever be, a Rangers fan. Though I have been to Loftus Road and it's a great little club. I merely 'support' them because I have a bet on them. I am actually a Nottingham Forest fan - not that that's anything to be proud of at the moment..............

Camila Giorgi:


2 comments:

  1. Had a pretty torrid time myself from the first game's of the season, I think personally I just won't bother getting involved until the back end of the game's of the first tournament of the actual season. Lack of liquidity caused me no end of problems and also with rustiness of not touching and market's on any sport's for pretty much a month and tennis market's for near on 6 weeks also took it's toll similar to you.

    Things are starting to pick up now, which kind of has coincided with liquidity in game's pick up, so I think half the issue lied there for me personally. Hope you have a good January and go green for the month. Hold fast & steady the ship :)

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  2. Cheers kojn, I've just been unlucky mostly so things should turn soon and I expect to get lots of greens to even it out!

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