2013 has been a total disaster. Since the tennis season started, I have only recorded TWO wins. I daren't even look at all the reds but it's easily my longest draw-down EVER. I didn't suffer anything like this in the whole of 2012. So what has been the reason for it? Well, aside from 1 particularly bad trade, I haven't really done much wrong. It really has just been a case of extreme bad variance. In fact, the worst loss (which totals just under 50% of my entire losses) was in the very first game of the season! I completely messed up in the opening Andy Murray match (where he was dumped out of the Mubadala Exhibition) because I didn't follow my strategy which has been so successful for 12 months. It was pure rustiness on my behalf. I wasn't reading the market well and simply wasn't in tune with the ladders after a 6 week break. The Abu Dhabi Exhibition was supposed to be a gentle sway back into trading, to lift off the cobwebs but I stupidly went in full steam ahead without allowing for the loss of that natural feel for the processes.
To be fair to myself though, I reacted well to this. I haven't panicked and haven't done anything massively stupid or reckless since. My other losses have all been standard size reds and although there are one or two regrettable trades where I lost patience, not one of them cost me much. But they do pile up and it is now going to take a pretty fantastic Australia Open to make January a decent month.
There is some good news though. I have barely traded any of my bread and butter WTA, as it's mostly been on in the small hours. That will change as of today, as I work the graveyard shift for Oz time - midnight to morning. So that should improve matters. Plus, I know what the potential is for a nasty draw-down with my strategy. It's good to know this because with my success last year, I wasn't quite sure just how bad it could get and what I needed to prepare for. Now I know! It's painful but it's bearable. And if the tennis has been a disaster, the football has at least cheered me up. I predicted that QPR would get a draw against Chelsea (in the comments section of my previous post) but even I was shocked to see a 0-1 away win for the bottom placed Premier League side against the form side in English football.
I just had a gut feeling this would be an upset; London derby, midweek following the congested festive period, at night under the lights - it just had that feel about it. They were so dire against Liverpool 1st half, I just couldn't see them performing that badly for the next game and they matched them in the 2nd half. Plus, I never go against a team that I know will just get everyone behind the ball and defend for 90 mins. Can just as easily end 0-0 as it would 6-0. The win puts QPR back on the coat-tails of Wigan, Southampton and Villa and I still believe they will stay up, so my lay of them in the relegation market remains in place - for now.
NB: Just one important piece of info I feel I need to correct. Gundulf over on 'A Football Trader's Path' has labelled me as a QPR fan. This heinous piece of blasphemy has to be corrected! I have never been nor will ever be, a Rangers fan. Though I have been to Loftus Road and it's a great little club. I merely 'support' them because I have a bet on them. I am actually a Nottingham Forest fan - not that that's anything to be proud of at the moment..............