Sunday, 30 June 2013

June: The Results

We are at the halfway stage of Wimbledon and so far, not only has it been my best ever week of trading, it has turned June into my best ever month of trading.

I hope none of you loyal readers of this blog stuck any money on Nadal because I did give you forewarning that he would not win Wimbledon and that he would be put under a lot of pressure by underdogs (if you read my Wimbledon preview on Betting Expert) - so you've only got yourself to blame if you did! I will admit that I did not expect Steve Darcis to be the man to knock out Nadal, as I never saw him as having a big enough game to out-hit Rafa. But if Darcis did, it just goes to show how much of a problem Nadal is going to have on any surface other than clay. His knees just cannot handle the pounding they will take on harder courts. I was amazed to see Nadal's price at 1.5 when he was TWO SETS behind and did not hesitate to lay it. It turned out to be my biggest ever win on a tennis match and has made up a large chunk of my Wimbledon profit.

I have to admit that I've had a fair amount of luck this Wimbledon so far. The now legendary day 3 (or Wipeout Wednesday as it's been nicknamed), really was a spectacular day for me. Seven withdrawals (4 before the match even began), and 7 huge upsets (Jankovic, Hewitt, Ivanovic, Sharapova, Federer, Tsonga, Wozniacki) made it the most exciting day's trading I've ever known, both from a gambling and a tennis-lover's perspective. Not only was I on the right side of the two biggest upsets, with Federer and Sharapova being ousted, I also managed to be on Gulbis when Tsonga retired and Cetkovska when Wozniacki took a tumble and injured herself. I like to see it as reward for daring to lay the favourite but I doubt I'll have a day like that for quite some time. Who is to blame for all the slips and upsets? No one! People  should just accept that it was an unusual week, almost certainly a statistical anomaly that we may never see again at Wimbledon. If the underdogs had slipped and exited the tournament, no one would be talking about the state of the grass, that's for sure.

Just before Wimbledon started, I was very surprised to find several bookies offering money back on outright winner bets if Andy Murray wins Wimbledon. I jumped at the offer to back Djokovic, which I felt at the time was as good as a free bet, as I expect either him or Murray to win. With Nadal, Tsonga and Federer all out early, I'm sure a few bookies are going to be sweating come the end of this week. Nothing has really changed though as far as I'm concerned. Murray and Djokovic were faves to make the final and both still are. Same with Serena Williams despite the loss of Azarenka and Sharapova. The great thing about all of this is that week 2 will see many more even contests with these big guns knocked out, than you would normally get in the second week of a slam and so better prices to trade with.

As you can see, I've not done too badly on the old soccerball either, for the second month in a row. The Confederations Cup turned out to be a fantastic spectacle and a great tournament to trade if you were looking for goals. The Italy 4 Japan 3 match was the best international I've seen in many a year and a big chunk of my profit came from this and also laying under 9.5 goals in the Spain v Tahiti game. Spain just hit their 10th and final goal with a minute or two to spare but it was a fairly low risk bet (around 1.5 to lay pre-match), so I was never sweating, though definitely very excited! I figured that after a dire Nigerian side still managed to put 6 past the admirable Tahitians (who played the game as it should be played), the Spaniards would have little trouble hitting double figures.

Aside from a little bit of bragging, I do have a reason for notifying you of these larger wins. Someone recently asked me how I coped with over-confidence, as I "never having losing days". I replied with a wry smile, that I often have losing days. The truth is, I actually have more losing trades per month than winning ones. I'm sure that will surprise a lot of people but I tallied up all my matches traded during June and it reads as thus:

WINS                   57
LOSSES                74
BREAK EVEN         22

Any wins or losses under £10, I counted as break-even, as they are a negligible amount that could easily have been a win or a loss. So that shows you that trading isn't about picking loads of winners. It's about maximising your wins and minimising your losses.

I just want to end by making sure any new readers understand that "Sultan Tennis: The Ultimate Guide to Tennis Trading" does not exist, as it was an April Fool's joke! I still get emails asking for a copy and I feel a bit bad having to turn them down! You never know though, this may well change one day...............watch this space!

Mandy Minella:


14 comments:

  1. Fantastic month! Cooking on gas now :-)

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    1. Cheers Mark, yes things are improving month on month, get the feeling I'm due a bad one!

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  2. Lovely P&L screen, well done!

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  3. No offense but Mandy is far better looking than your P&L screen! lol

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  4. Very impressive month. I think your trading style is very similar to mine.

    Surely you are going to be reinvesting some of these profits now? If not, you lead a much more expensive lifestyle than me :)

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  5. I live a playboy lifestyle Webbo, weekends in Monaco don't come cheap you know :)

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  6. Congratulations to become Novak Djokovic! ;-)

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    1. Haha, thanks! I'm not Djokovic yet though, maybe David Ferrer?

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    2. Okay, should be enough for dating Julia! ;-)

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  7. #boom - great to see mate!

    ....my only advice (not that you need it) is to top up the rainy day fund.

    Keep it up!

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    1. Cheers GG, sound advice, I'm already looking into ISAs etc too.

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  8. Hey, in the Lisicki - Vesnina match.. have you backed Lisicki from the start and let it run? Because there were not so much you could trade since as you said your strategy is based on shifts in momentum..

    THX and have a nice evening!

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    1. I can't remember exactly, I may have done but she may have been behind at some point too.

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