Sunday, 17 August 2014

My Year So Far (With New Bonus Graphs!)

I hate statistical analysis. It was one of the modules of my university course that I reluctantly had to do and it was by far my most hated one. I mostly recall trying to stay awake in lectures and taking the piss out of my tutor with a friend because he was so bloody boring - probably as you would expect from someone who was that into statistical analysis (that's a joke there, don't start crying stat fans!). Who knew it would end up the most useful part of my entire degree? So I had a good basic understanding of things like probability, variance, outliers and how to collate and interpret information well before I became a trader. It's something most traders don't pay enough attention to. It's something I didn't pay enough attention to, for too long.

Despite the knowledge I have, it is only fairly recently that I've actually bothered to store all my P&L data in graphs and charts. There's absolutely no way I would ever have bothered to do so using mathematical software but last year I discovered a fantastic website called "". This superb piece of kit is a must for all lazy gits such as myself, who can't (or can't be bothered to) use Excel. With just a few simple clicks, you can download your Betfair P&L onto your PC and then onto MyBetLog, where it is instantly turned into a variety of pie-charts, graphs and stats such as your average loss, average win and strike rate.

I've picked out the two most important/interesting graphs for you, which are my daily P&L and overall P&L (running from the start of the tennis season to July). As you can see, it's been a decent year for me so far.

December was my only losing month, though hardly counts as it was just 4 days of trading. The trend has been upwards ever since then, with April my best month and June my worst. If the trend continues, I could hit the super premium charge in roughly one year - a scary thought! As you can see, I have my fair share of losing days and my strike rate obviously shows that I'm very used to losing trades but it just goes to show that trading isn't about picking winners.

One thing I love about graphs is that they make everything seem a bit more real. When you are just looking at numbers, you don't quite get that same sense of exactly how well or how badly you are doing. Looking at these graphs (which I had updated a couple of weeks ago after 3 months of not bothering) they do put things a little into perspective for me. I think I'd taken for granted just how well I was doing and forgot to give myself a congratulatory pat on the back every so often. I've started to focus too much on the negative side of trading and not enough on the positive. Admittedly, the positive is mostly profit-related but nonetheless it's a very big positive that many people would kill for and I should remember that. But the negatives that I have written about in recent weeks are still very real. This is what I am weighing up at the moment. What's more important to me - the money and freedom or being more deeply fulfilled with a sense of purpose, challenge, enjoyment and community?

As I've said before, I feel I have a lot to offer the world in some capacity. I was thinking of becoming one of them political mediator whatsits. You know, the guys what sort out big arguments just by using their mouths. I reckon I'd be dead good at that, it's just talking sense really, innit? Take that Middle East war for example. I could get in there and sort that mess out no problem. You've got them Palestinians. Now, I know they're all pissed off cos their leader, Tony Pulis, is dead but it's really no need to start kicking off and firing rockets and shit. And the Isaralites, right, they're dropping bombs on UEFA refugee training camps and stuff - BANG out of order. I'd just go in there, to Africa or whatever, sit them down with a few pints and some pork scratchings and say "Lads, you know god doesn't even exist, right? Have you not heard of the The Big Bang Theory? No, I don't mean that pile-o-shite American sitcom that daft lasses find funny. Google it. So all this kerfuffle is a waste of time, dudes!". Out come the Ipads, job's a good 'un. I'm telling you, super premium charge in one year, Nobel Peace Prize in two.

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